TRILLIONS AND TRILLIONS AND TRILLIONS

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) just published their “current policy” score of the Senate reconciliation bill, showing the bill would add about $500 billion less to the deficit than extending all the expiring 2017 tax cuts. Against a more appropriate current law baseline, and including interest, these numbers suggest the bill would add over $3.9 trillion to the national debt. Specifically, the bill includes roughly $4.45 trillion of net tax cuts and nearly $300 billion of gross spending increase, partially offset by nearly $1.5 trillion of gross spending cuts. We estimate the bill would increase interest costs by nearly $700 billion.

CBO Score of Senate One Big Beautiful Bill Act

Source: CBO, CRFB estimates based on current policy adjustment. Figures may not sum due to rounding.

The Senate bill would borrow almost $1 trillion more than the House bill. It would also fail to comply with the House reconciliation instructions requiring $2 trillion of gross spending cuts or offsetting tax cuts changes, falling nearly $500 billion short.

Even these numbers understate the potential costs of the bill, since the legislation relies on a number of arbitrary expirations. Borrowing could rise by another $1 trillion –  to $5 trillion or more – if temporary provisions were made permanent.

The Senate should reject this bill and work toward a fiscally responsible alternative that reduces rather than explodes our high and rising debt.