This Week Could Reshape The Fed Narrative

Fed Week? Animal Spirits?

While many are assuming the July 30th FOMC meeting is a “no-go” and the first rate cut isn’t likely until the September 17th meeting, that could be wrong. We will also touch on “Animal Spirts” in this report, as that will be the next driver for the economy, even more than the markets.

But first, let’s revisit Academy’s Geopolitical content this week.

We start with Saturday night’s rapid assessment of the U.S. Strikes on Iran. This dovetailed into our weekend T-Report – A LOT of Moving Parts. While that incorporated an update on the Middle East, it also highlighted other “moving parts” the market is dealing with – tariffs, who the President is being advised by, the Big Beautiful Bill, Russia and Ukraine, Questioning the Fed, and the Art of the Deal. These topics remain front and center for the economy and markets. On Tuesday we published Peace Through Strength. We cannot emphasize this report enough, as it consolidates our take on the attacks and the various paths forward. While a week might not seem like a long time (it does, though, lately), it has stood the test of time. Whatever competing narratives are playing out in the media, we believe this gets to the heart of the matter. Not only was serious damage done, but an incredibly powerful message was sent not just to Iran, but also to all of America’s adversaries. Finally, we also published our latest Around the World, which has grown in size and scope commensurate with the expansion of our Geopolitical Intelligence Group, and the importance of geopolitical risks in today’s world.

Digesting that information is enough, and we could almost stop here, but we want to

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