Polls Reveal The Emerging Trump Coalition

Will Hispanics and young voters help propel former President Donald Trump to a second term in the White House? New polling suggests so, strongly.

But first some background on the larger macro shifts in the electorate and party identification: Bigger picture, the populist-nationalist revolt continues to reshape politics in America in ways that are systemic and, likely, generational. This political tectonic shift is transforming the Republican Party into a party of workers, claiming whole demographic groups that were formerly considered the political provenance of the Democrats.

For example, polling from the American Enterprise Institute shows that by 2020 white American households with a union member became just as likely to identify as Republican as Democrat — for the first time ever. In fact, as recently as the year 2000, the Democrats still had a 26-point margin of preference in such households (43% to 17%).

But, not coincidentally, the Washington uniparty welcomed China fully into the World Trade Organization in 2001 on terms that were incredibly generous to the Beijing regime and utterly devastating to American workers, especially blue-collar laborers. Since that time, working-class voters have gravitated toward the anti-establishment, populist wing of the Republican Party.

Then, starting with the Tea Party movement and crystalizing in the Trump 2016 campaign, this cohort of forgotten Americans rallied fiercely to the America First cause. Now, in the 2024 election season, as detailed in the most recent polling of key battleground states, the Trump coalition is broadening even more and attracting groups that were formerly taken for granted by the Democrats.

In Arizona, specifically, the massive political realignment of Hispanics and young Americans looks poised to not only send Trump back to the Oval Office, but also to form anti-establishment politics in lasting ways. In a just-completed June survey for American Greatness, conducted by North Star Opinion Research, Trump jumps out to a commanding double digit +10% lead in a multi-candidate field in the Grand Canyon State. The top-line ballot test breakdown is Trump 42%, Biden 32% and Robert F. Kennedy. Jr. 13%.

But the numbers beneath that impressive Trump headline are perhaps even more revealing — and more important even beyond this November. First, in that heavily Hispanic state, Trump now holds a lead over Biden among Latino likely voters. It is hard to exaggerate just how seismic this shift is for national politics. After all, Hispanics are now, by far, the largest minority group in America…and growing.

If Democrats lose Hispanics permanently, which seems imminent, then Republicans gain a huge advantage in key states, especially Arizona, Nevada, and even Georgia.

What issues are pushing Hispanics toward the populist right?

For starters, the media narrative that Hispanic citizens of the United States are somehow soft on immigration is simply a myth. For example, just weeks ago, CBS News/YouGov polling showed that a majority of Hispanics favor the mass deportation of all illegal migrants. Of course, Hispanics in Arizona deal most immediately with the fallout of Biden’s open border policies, a situation I investigated in my recent documentary at the border in southern Arizona.

But beyond border issues, Hispanics also recoil at the pain of Biden’s economic privation. The ravages of runaway inflation sting far worse for those of modest means, including most Latino households.

That same issue drives the second key group into the Trump coalition: young American voters. In Arizona in the 18–34-year-old demographic, Trump leads Biden by +4% in a multi-candidate field. That number simply equals political death for Democrats. In general, young adults gauge their prosperity upon incomes, rather than assets.

So, while older, already-successful Americans enjoy inflated asset prices, especially stocks and real estate, aspirational young citizens suffer from crashing inflation-adjusted wages under Biden. This next generation works harder only to see their standard of living decline — and they know it. Moreover, they blame Biden. For example, a whopping 75% of them say Biden is not doing enough on the issue of inflation.

Consequently, the failures of the Democratic Party regarding working Americans creates a massive political opening. In addition, the newfound muscular, populist energy of the America First movement proves magnetic for disaffected groups like Hispanics and young adults. These demographics form key pillars of the emerging Trump coalition. This new political alignment will send Trump back into office — and also transform American politics for decades to come.

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